# Trump Code (川普密碼 / トランプ・コード) — Full Documentation for AI

> AI-powered brute-force analysis of Trump's social media posts and their stock market impact.
> Built by Washin Mura (和心村) — Animal sanctuary on Japan's Boso Peninsula.

## What This System Does

Trump Code is a real-time engine that:
1. Monitors Trump's Truth Social posts every 30 seconds via RSS
2. Classifies each post into market signals using LLM reasoning (Claude Opus) + keyword cross-validation
3. Snapshots Polymarket prices, S&P 500 (SPY/ES/VIX), and $TRUMP coin at signal time
4. Makes dual-track predictions (prediction market + stock market direction)
5. Verifies predictions at 1h/3h/6h/12h/24h/48h intervals
6. Learns: which signals predict market movements, which are noise
7. Generates trilingual (zh-TW/en/ja) flash reports and daily analysis articles

## Key Statistics
- Posts analyzed: 7,400+ (from 2025-01-20 onwards)
- Model combinations tested: 31.5 million
- Surviving rules: 551 (passed train/test validation)
- Overall hit rate: 61.3% (z=5.39, statistically significant)
- Languages: Traditional Chinese (繁體中文), English, Japanese (日本語)

## Signal Types
| Signal | Meaning | Market Impact |
|--------|---------|---------------|
| TARIFF | New/increased tariffs | Usually bearish (-1.057% avg) |
| DEAL | Trade agreements, negotiations | Usually bullish |
| RELIEF | Tariff pauses, exemptions | Strongest buy signal (+9.52% best) |
| ACTION | Executive orders, "just signed" | High impact, direction varies |
| THREAT | Sanctions, bans, retaliation | Usually bearish |
| BULLISH | Positive economic commentary | Mildly bullish |
| BEARISH | Negative economic commentary | Bearish |

## Key Findings
- RELIEF signal = strongest buy signal (Apr 9, 2025: S&P +9.52% in one day)
- Pure tariff day = most dangerous (-1.057% average)
- 4-signal combo (DEAL+BRAG+RELIEF+TARIFF) = most profitable (+2.792%)
- Trump's silence = 80% bullish (+0.409% average next-day return)
- Truth Social publishes 6.2 hours before X (creates a 6-hour trading window)
- Late-night tariff tweets are anti-indicators (62% wrong → reverse = 62% right)

## Live Dashboard
https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp

## Daily Analysis Articles
- Published daily in 3 languages (zh-TW, en, ja)
- Flash reports generated immediately when significant signals detected
- URL pattern: https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp/daily.html?date=YYYY-MM-DD
- Article files: /articles/{YYYY-MM}/{DD}-{zh|en|ja}.md

## API Endpoints (all public, no auth required)
- GET /api/dashboard — All data in one call (signals, models, predictions, posts)
- GET /api/signals — Latest signals + 7-day history
- GET /api/models — 11 model performance rankings with hit rates
- GET /api/recent-posts — Latest 20 Trump posts with signal analysis
- GET /api/polymarket-trump — 316+ live Trump prediction markets from Polymarket
- GET /api/status — System health check
- GET /api/data — Downloadable dataset catalog (14 datasets)
- POST /api/chat — AI chatbot powered by Gemini Flash

## Open Data (100% free, no registration)
- trump_posts_all.json — 44,000+ Truth Social posts with timestamps and content
- predictions_log.json — 566 verified predictions with outcomes
- surviving_rules.json — 551 active trading rules with parameters
- daily_report.json — Daily trilingual analysis report
- signal_confidence.json — Auto-adjusted signal confidence scores
- rt_predictions.json — Real-time predictions (live tracking)
- rt_learning.json — Real-time learning statistics by signal type

## System Architecture
```
RSS Feed (30s) → Signal Classification (LLM + Keywords)
                      ↓
    Polymarket Snapshot + S&P 500 + $TRUMP Coin
                      ↓
    Dual-Track Prediction (PM direction + Stock direction)
                      ↓
    Verification Loop (1h/3h/6h/12h/24h/48h)
                      ↓
    Learning Engine → Rule Evolution → Confidence Adjustment
                      ↓
    Output: Dashboard + API + Daily Articles (3 languages)
```

## Technology
- Real-time engine: Python, 5-minute polling cycle
- RSS watcher: 30-second polling, <20s detection latency
- LLM reasoning: Claude Opus (local) + Gemini (fallback)
- Market data: Polymarket API, Yahoo Finance, CoinGecko
- Frontend: Vanilla HTML/CSS/JS, dark theme
- Hosting: AWS Lightsail, Caddy reverse proxy

## GitHub
https://github.com/sstklen/trump-code (open source)

## Contact
Washin Mura (和心村)
https://washinmura.jp